The electoral map | Battlefield America | Economist.com

BARACK OBAMA hopes to wrap up the Democratic nomination next week, as the three last primaries, combined with an expected slew of superdelegate announcements, carry him over the threshold of victory. Already, his team is focusing on winning the White House. With an electorate sick of war, costly petrol and George Bush, the odds favour him. Intrade, a betting site, puts his chances at 58%.

If he (or, should a miracle occur, Mrs Clinton) stumbles, however, it may be because the electoral college has worked against the Democrats. With five months of campaigning still ahead, all predictions should be taken with a fistful of salt. Nonetheless, it is at least plausible that he (or she) might rack up pointlessly large majorities in liberal states while narrowly failing to carry enough swing states to win.

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